Why Waiting Until Spring Could Cost Homebuyers

The past few years have been tough for buyers. And if you think back to before the pandemic, you’ll likely remember hearing that spring was always the ideal time to buy a home. After all, that’s when the majority of homeowners list their homes for sale, and more homes on the market means more options for buyers. 

This fall, however, marketing conditions are aligning in favor of homebuyers in many markets, creating a unique window that hasn’t happened in recent years. Realtor.com even named September 29 - October 5 the best week to buy a home in 2024. 

"This year buyers who are looking for that optimum mix of ample options and the potential to save on list price are going to find some of the best market dynamics in years during the first week of October," said Danielle Hale, chief economist, Realtor.com®.

So, what makes this season stand out?  Let's break down the data below. 

#1—Lower Mortgage Rates

After months of steady climbs, mortgage rates have recently dipped to their lowest levels since February 2023, falling to 6.11% on September 11. 

This decline offers buyers a chance to lock in more favorable rates and save substantially on their monthly payments. For instance, the monthly payment on a typical home purchase has decreased by over $100 since peaking in May, according to Zillow. 

But here’s the catch: mortgage rates are unpredictable. While they’re lower now, they could rise again without warning. Acting now could mean the difference between getting a great deal and missing out. 

#2—Peak Inventory Levels

If you’ve been holding out for more options, your patience has paid off. In August, the number of homes for sale increased by 22.1% compared to the same time last year. And, Realtor.com reports that the first week of October will likely feature 37% more active listings than at the start of the year, offering the widest selection for buyers.

"Unlike the past few years, we are seeing ample for-sale inventory which could soak up any late-season demand in many markets, making the fall a great time to buy even if falling mortgage rates amp up more demand than is typical," said Hale.

More inventory means more choices — and more opportunities to find the perfect home. It also means less pressure to make a snap decision, allowing you the time to thoroughly consider your options without worrying about losing out to another buyer.

In Sonoma County, housing inventory is in line with national trends. In August, we saw a 29.1% increase in inventory. This gives buyers more options to choose from with the possibility of less competition per house.

#3—Less Competition Means More Negotiating Power

Spring and summer are traditionally hot buying seasons, with a typical cooling in fall and winter. Buyer demand is expected to drop by nearly 30% compared to the spring peak. This reduction in competition could give you a leg up in negotiations, whether that means offering below the asking price or asking the seller to cover some of your closing costs.

#4—Price Reductions are More Common

In a market with more inventory and less competition, sellers are often more motivated to make deals happen. In August, 25.9% of listings experienced price cuts nationwide, compared to 23.4% a year ago. If you’ve been frustrated by inflated prices, you might find more opportunities to negotiate a lower price or snag a deal on a home that has been sitting on the market.

In addition, Redfin reports that the number of homes sold above their list price has also dropped, from 33% last year to just 27.9% in the four weeks ending September 8. In practical terms, this means that sellers are more willing to negotiate, giving you the opportunity to buy a home for less than you might have expected.

Seasonal Trends for Homebuyers

While fall is typically seen as a slower season for real estate, it can actually be a strategic time to buy. Many sellers want to close deals before the holiday season, making them more motivated to negotiate. That’s part of the reason why Realtor.com identified the week of September 29 – October 5 as the best week to buy a home this year (along with the reasons above!). 

If you’re thinking about buying a home, waiting until spring could mean higher rates, fewer options, and stiffer competition. This fall is offering a rare combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, reduced competition, and increased negotiating power. If you’re interested in learning more about your options, reach out above for a discovery call.